House prices in Ireland are still very overvalued, despite the falls that have already happened.
David McWilliams tells it like it is. He writes.
The value of the asset will have some relation to the yield the
asset returns. In houses, the yield is the rent. So let’s take a yield
of 7pc as being a reasonable return on an asset that costs money to
update and is not generating a significant capital gain. This 7pc would
be a long-run average yield, particularly as government bonds which
form the benchmark for yield of other assets are on their way back up
to that figure.
Using this 7pc yield idea we can value a house at some multiple of
the rent it generates. Typically, the value of a house was calculated
at 12 to 14 times its annual rent. (The 12 to 14 times equates to a
yield of around 7pc.) This relationship has held in the US for over 100
years. There is no reason to believe that this shouldn’t be the way to
value Irish houses.
This is a normal price/earning ratio that we would use in the stock
markets to assess value. What the US valuation model is saying is that,
over time, property should trade on a price/earnings (P/E) ratio of 14
times.
So, let’s see where Irish houses will end up. Take a typical house
in a commuter town. On daft.ie there are hundreds of them. Let’s take
Newbridge in Co Kildare, a typical deckland suburb where unemployment
has tripled in the past year. You can buy a new three-bed house for
€335,000. This is a steal, according to the ad. Beside the house is yet
another predatory ad from AIB saying that it will finance the house for
€995 per month.
According to the same website, the average rent for a three-bed in
Newbridge is between €950 and €1,000 a month. This house, if it can be
rented, will yield €11,400 a year. This implies that, applying the US
valuation to the asset, the house should be valued at €159,600.
However, in Ireland, we are expecting the house to sell at €335,000.
The Irish house, at a “bargain” price of €335,000, is still way
overvalued. It will have to fall by almost half again to make the sums
add up.
Exactly. Which, it seems to me means that Nama is nonsense unless we are talking about valuations of 25% or under of the peak of the market.